Should Brett Gardner not make it in baseball, his modeling career is off to a great start.

For anyone still concerned about the Yankees LF situation, I’m going to put some perspective in it.  Let’s take a look at the AL pennant winners over the last 10 years and review their weakest link in the lineup.  Should we truly be concerned about a platoon of Brett Gardner, Randy Winn, and potentially Jamie Hoffman or Marcus Thames?

The 2009 World Series champions had essentially 1 player with a below 100 OPS+, the CF platoon/combo of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner.

The 2008 AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays had 3 regulars OPS+ under 100, 2 of whom were under 90 in Bartlett and Crawford.

2007 World Champion Red Sox had Julio Lugo and his 65 OPS+ and Coco Crisp and his 83 OPS+ get over 500 ab’s each.  That is two huge holes in a lineup.

The 2006 AL Champion Detroit Tigers had 5 regulars under 100 OPS+, including Placido Polanco at a blistering 80.

The 2005 WS Champion White Sox had a whopping 6 regulars OPS+ under 100, including and outfield with Gardner clone Scott Podsednik at 86 and gritty Aaron Rowand at 93.  That team, unlike the 2010 Yankees, did not have one of the greatest infields of all time.

The 2004 World Series Champion, and true juggernaut Boston Red Sox had 1.5 regulars with OPS+’s below 100.

The 2003 AL Champion Yankees had 1 regular below 100 OPS+, with both third basemen, Robin Ventura and Aaron Boone in the 90’s.

The 2002 WS Champion Angels had 2 regulars below 90 OPS+, one of whom was at 58!!  The other was at 86.

The 2001 AL Champion Yankees had 3 regulars below 100 OPS+, including……wait for it…..their left fielder, who provided horrible defense.

The 2000 WS Champion Yankees had several below average hitters in the lineup, Tino, Knoblauch, Brosius, O’Neill. (but damn they’re a gritty bunch).

So there we have it.  The last 10 AL Champions have had at least 1 below average offensive player in their lineup, and have averaged 2.75 below average players in their regular lineups.  If the LF trio puts up an OPS+ of 85, which I would consider below expectations, the Yankees will be just fine.  If they put up a 95, things will be rosy.  Again, this one below average spot in the lineup will provide plus defense and is easily platoonable with a right handed hitter, a left handed hitter, and a switch hitter.  The cries for Johnny Damon are just unbearable and ridiculous.  Simply put, if the Yankees fail this year, it will not be due to their left fielders.

Would he fit on the Yankees?

A few organizations have taken fliers on troubled but gifted outfielder Elijah Dukes, betting that his raw power, solid bat and excellent discipline could overcome the myriad of legal issues and off-field and on-field controversies.

Natinals GM Mike Rizzo cut the cord on Wednesday, releasing Dukes, 25. This is a pretty big shocker considering that Dukes hasn’t had any legal trouble since 2007 and was coming into 2010 as the starting right fielder. Even more shocking: he had an option; he could have been sent down to the minors. Instead, Rizzo, having been unable to find a team willing to trade anything for Dukes, straight up released him. Essentially, the GM felt Dukes’ hitting approach wasn’t improving, he wasn’t well-liked in the clubhouse, and there were better in-house options. Basically, it wasn’t one thing that doomed him but a consortium of “minor” troubles. Well at least now he, Shawn Kemp and Antonio Cromartie can arrange play dates for their kids more easily. Silver lining, I suppose.

But seriously, let’s start by taking a look at some of the numbers. After being selected in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft by the Rays, Dukes mostly destroyed the minors in the Tampa Bay system. He then struggled mightily in his 2007 callup, and was shuttled off to Washington, where he rebounded to hit a line of .264/.386/.478/.864, an OPS+ of 127 in 81 games. His power numbers were excellent with .214 ISO and he posted a strong UZR in RF (11.2), albeit in a very small sample. He snagged a few bags, too. All in all, Dukes was one of the few bright spots in Washington that year with his 2.8 WAR.

But then 2009 came. Dukes started well, putting up a .279/.355/.500 in March and April. But it appears pitchers caught wind of his weaknesses shortly thereafter—he struggles mightily against the curveball. Like Pedro-Serrano-struggles out there. All told, in 2009, Dukes was only able to put 12% of curveballs in play and was near a .100 average against the pitch. Just…wow. In contrast, he was able to put around 20% of both fastballs and sliders in play. Problem is, the power dropped considerably (an ISO of .143), to where he was a singles hitter. His walk rate dropped (though still good) and while he connected for contact more, he swung too often and seemed to not hit anything hard. He’d end up with a line of .250/.337/.393.

The defense also abandoned him; he posted a UZR of -5.9 in RF in 65 games and was Damon-ian in CF in his short time there. Though he didn’t hit for more power in September and October of 2009, he was able to hit curveballs at 20% in September/October (SSS) and had an OBP of .398. So he did improve a bit later in the year.

This brings us to the Yankees (of course it does!). Currently, the Yanks have Brett Gardner, Randy Winn, Jamie Hoffmann and Marcus Thames out there. Not exactly Murderers Row. Dukes is easily the most talented of those players, but talent isn’t necessarily what’s at issue here. If we’re considering what situation would fit best for Dukes, it’s hard to think that any organization offers more in terms of stability, playing time potential, a veteran clubhouse, and the soothing music of winning. If Dukes were to sign, there’s a good chance he’d be the starting left fielder in 2010.

At worst, he’d probably create an excellent 5th outfielder as a guy that can play the field, hit for power and take walks. Jamie Hoffmann and Marcus Thames are very expendable. Jettisoning both of them to make room for Dukes makes tons of sense. Best case scenario, he puts up an OPS+ of 130 or higher and removes any need to pursue  a Werth or Crawford (who will be overpaid and both have concerns) in Free Agency. The reward/risk potential is very, very favorable to the team.

Now certainly there are clubhouse concerns and off-the-field considerations to be made. I can’t say that I’ve ever met Dukes and his history as a malcontent with legal troubles is concerning, if any organization can deal with things like this, it’s the Yankees. They’ve done so in the past. I bet a veteran clubhouse with Jeter, CC, Mo, Jorge, Teix, Pettitte, Swisher, Burnett, Granderson would be unable to sit him aside and make sure he’s apart of something. They’d probably be able to keep him in line but then again, considering the range of his temper and his temper, maybe not.

Still, there’s some hope for reform. He’s kept his nose clean for a few years. He can do it. And winning really can be a cure-all for the blues. Dukes must know the next team he signs with very well might be his last chance.  That, combined with a solid cadre of veterans, playing time opportunities, perpetual pursuit of championships and a long-term opportunity for a job should prove extremely tempting.

Of course, he could be absolutely certifiably insane and he and Antonio Cromartie get drunk, fuck shit up and have like 30 kids in a night while hanging out with Ian O’Connor and Joel Sherman before murdering one of them. That possibility exists. And actually, that doesn’t sound too horrible now that I think about it. Anyway… we also don’t know how great the spotlight will be on the troubled 25-year-old and if that pressure proves to be too much and he snaps, choking out Igawa. Maybe, and more importantly,  he really can’t hit a curveball. Who knows? But isn’t his immense potential, him keeping his nose clean and supposedly maturing, the Yankee clubhouse and the obvious positional need worth the chance?

If you have any confidence Dukes can rebound in 2010 (and you should) and isn’t 100% fucking insane, he’s a great fit for the Yankees. For the risk of losing Marcus Thames and Jamie Hoffmann, I think it’s worth signing him.

Photo Credit: David Drebin