Once upon a time the Nats were a respectable organization. Of course, this is also a period in which their fan base was largely accustomed to consuming 20 lbs. of cheese curds and gravy over fries (poutin) in single sittings while halfheartedly telling the rest of Canada they want to secede. Quebec is kind of like the high maintenance girlfriend that threatens to break up with you but reconsiders after you give her some shopping money. How much has changed!

Since moving to the murder capital, the Nats only slight semblance of success has come in the form of easy jokes and the luck of getting Strasberg and (presumably) Harper. They can’t even spell their own names correctly! With pitching phenom Steven Strasburg and some other young talent in play, folks are (gulp!) predicting the Nats might even contend this year. Seriously. It’s no secret that their pitching staff resembled the Hindenburg, but if you look closely you might be shocked to see that they were actually pretty solid hitters. They didn’t lose because they couldn’t hit the ball.

OF: Nyjer Morgan was an odd breakout player in 2009. I don’t think anyone saw Nyjer-freakin’-Morgan hitting .307/.369/.487 with 42 steals and a UZR of 27.8 (!). His speed and defense have always been there. He’s without question one of the better defensive outfielders playing today. But can we really expect that bat to play like that again? In 2009 his BABip was .355, which will likely see some regression in 2010. Still, there’s reason to believe he can maintain a good portion of that production. A guy with great speed hitting more than 50% of balls for grounders will get on base. And he’ll definitely steal some bases, too. But I’m not sold that he can maintain the increase in walks and limit the strikeouts like he has. He swings at a fair amount of pitches out of the zone, which may bite him later. Pitchers will have the scouting report on Morgan. Overall, he should still be a guy with 2.5-3 WAR even if he drops off considerably in offensive production. I think .290/.345/.370 is pretty reasonable. Flanking Morgan on the left will be Josh Willingham. Again, like Morgan, he might have over-performed a bit, but you know what? He’s actually a pretty good player. His power is solid (.213 career ISO), he has fairly good speed and assaults lefties. His defense sucks and it seems unlikely he’ll maintain a 17.4 HR/FB mark, but you’ll be getting a guy with a decent walk rate (around 12%) with good power, poor defense, average speed, meh contact. Still, you want a bit more out of an offensive position, particularly as Willingham doesn’t bring pluses on defense. Still, he’s serviceable.

Now, onto the more interesting spot — right field. Elijah Dukes was pegged at the RF position going in. I’ve written about Dukes already and still think he’ll be a guy that can really contribute this year. But it won’t happen in capital city. His replacements will be the outrageously hysterical “platoon” of Willie Harris and Willy Taveras. Williey Tevharris might be able to drum up a combined line of .250/.320/.370 with good speed and plus defense. Taveras does not walk, no power and has had issues bunting of late –which is actually one of the few ways Taveras is able to get on base. He’s like the super worst case scenario of Brett Gardner. Harris profiles as a guy with low-contact, better on-base, good defense, little power. Though he struggled a bit on defense last year, Harris has been used as a super-utility guy, playing virtually ever spot on the diamond. But he’s really good as a defensive corner outfielder. I think he’ll rebound to put up a UZR around 12 after strangely throwing up a -7 in 2009. In fact, this platoon could end up being among the best defensive corner outfielder spots in the NL. Harris also has a bit of speed but really struggles against lefties. Wait for it…Taveras also struggles against lefties. So that’ll be a fun pairing. If nothing else, not a lot of balls are going to fall in CF and RF with Morgan and those fellas. Behind them are Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell. Maxwell is a talented guy that could definitely displace both of them by the end of the year. Keep an eye on him. I suspect the Nats jettisoned Dukes thinking they could give Maxwell a bit more time in the minors to see him take over later in the year. They might have also been worried that Dukes was simply too volatile and dropping him to AAA would have been met with the incredible resistance.

IF: You know what? I actually really like this infield. Ryan Zimmerman at 3B is the best least-heralded 3B in the game. He’s the best defensive third baseman in baseball, will give you power (30+ HR), good OBP (.367 in 2009) and might even hit .300. What’s not to like? People forget that he’s actually 25 and this will be his 5th full season! I think he’s really going to do good things in 2010. His neighbor at SS has been a fairly touted guy. Ian Desmond beat out the long-toothed one-time Yankee Cristian Guzman. While he probably won’t be Shiva Destroyer of Worlds in his first go around, the book on Desmond is that he has top-notch tools but struggled putting all of the pieces together. Good glove, good speed, solid contact and impressive raw strength for a middle infielder. Whatever the case may be, getting him some time to develop at the expense of Christian Guzman might not be a bad thing at all. Let him take some lumps and really jump into it for 2011. (He may also be on my fantasy team, so I could be letting that bias affect my better judgment — he may be better served at AAA Syracuse for a half season before making the club at the midpoint.)

At 2B will be Adam Kennedy. I don’t get it. Really, I don’t. Did his grit convince them to sign him? Yeah, he’s just a placeholder without real expectations, but Jesus, how does he keep fooling teams into thinking he’s a starting-caliber 2B? I know he did pretty well in 2009. He hit .289/.348/.410. It looks nice for 2B. I don’t believe he can repeat that. It’s the second-best offensive season of his career. Defensively, it was his worst season. His UZR was -10.3, though that’s partly skewed by his poor showing at 3B for Oakland last season. Maybe he’s losing his step. Nothing’s conclusive right now but it is worrisome. It’s especially worrisome when compounded by the fact that 2009 offensively looks to be an outlier. His 2006-2008 showings had his wRC+ numbers at 86, 52, 87. 2009: 108. That’s only topped by his crazy 2002 season in which is BABip was .361. I don’t think he’s a 52 wrC+ guy, but I don’t think he’s a 100+, either. He’s more likely to be in the 80-90 range. .275/.330/.370 seems like a safe bet.

Finally, we get to one of my favorites in Adam Dunn. Think about it like this: you’re really good in one aspect of your job. Say you can crunch the numbers, put together all kinds of shit and be a solid value for the company in that measure. In fact, you’re one of the best in the industry at that. Really, really good. But by contrast, you absolutely cannot communicate with people. You shit on people’s desks, send snakes in the mail, masturbate in the mail room and scream obscenities to important clients. That’s like Adam Dunn with offense and defense. His defense in the OF was so bad that it negated any offense he contributed.

Finally someone said, “You know what? Adam Dunn just cannot play the outfield. Sure, it’s funny. So is watching old people fall. But it’s also kind of fucked up. We have to move his ass to 1B.” And the heavens open! Adam Dunn probably will not be a good defensive first baseman. Whatever. It will limit his defensive blunders so his surplus value will be much higher than it had been. Don’t expect much of a batting average, but he’s like a Nick Swisher with crazy-good power. He’ll give you lots of K’s, lots of BB’s and lots of 2B’s and HR’s. He’s as safe a bet as anyone to give you 35-40 HR’s with an OBP of .380 or better. You have to like that.

Cristian Guzman will be the utility infielder and might grab some playing time away from Adam Kennedy. There’s not much in the minors that will contribute, though 1B Chris Marrero, at one time a top-rated hitter in the minors, might rebound and get a cup of coffee. He did well in 2009 and has a nice swing with good power potential.

C: Ivan Rodriguez is still alive. Somehow. Amazingly, someone actually thought it was a good idea to give him a job. Not just any job or a minor-league assignment. The Natinals signed him to a TWO YEAR DEAL (!) for $6 million. Never mind that better catchers were signing one-year deals for less money. He hasn’t played 150 games in years, isn’t better than average at this point defensively, still hasn’t drawn a walk since Star Wars: Episode II came out, and doesn’t make good contact on the ball anymore. I understand that he’s a Hall of Famer (though I think he was definitely a product of the steroid era — not that I give two shits who used or didn’t) and a veteran that can be counted on for leadership in the clubhouse. I get it. But for a rebuilding team, these are not the moves you make. This is fucking stupid. You couldn’t find one of the 40 Molina brothers to take a smaller deal? You don’t go to a madame and turn down a few decent hookers that will take a low price for the once-pretty old hooker with STD’s, sores and higher price demands. You just don’t do it, regardless of the sage wisdom she can provide in dental dam anecdotes.

SP: Obviously the hot name in pitching is Strasburg. It seems likely the Nats will delay his arbitration and bring him up some time in May. How he’ll do is anyone’s guess. While he has the stuff to succeed, young pitchers often struggle in their first season in the big leagues. Still, he looks like the real deal. It’s totally possible he pitches like an ace in his first season. The talent is monstrous. As it currently stands, their “ace” will likely be John Lannon. He’s a somehow a solid pitcher, though more of a #3 or further back in the rotation. He’ll definitely eat some innings, though it’s baffling to see a guy throw up an ERA+ of 110 with a K/BB of 1.31. He doesn’t strike anyone out (3.88 k/9) and has outperformed his FIPx for the third straight season. His BABip is absurdly low at .276, and it’s been around that mark a few years running. Fangraphs’ Jack Moore takes an interesting look at Lannon’s odd season.

Filling out the rest of the Nats’ patchwork rotation is Jason Marquis, another innings-eater that continues to defy his peripherals, the unimpressive Craig Stammen, the confusing decision to bring in Garrett Mock over Scott Olsen, and J.D. Martin. Marquis is a sinkerballer, groundball pitcher that doesn’t miss many bats but keeps the ball in the yard. If the Nats’ infield performs as they can, he’ll be a valuable starter. Paying $15 million for two years is dumb (you might be sensing a pattern in signing fringe-y veterans to contracts too big) but you could do worse than Marquis.

I don’t know where the Nats found the other guys. They’re not very good. Craig Stammen will get knocked around; he doesn’t have plus stuff and is more just a fill-in. Garrett Mock is another guy with average stuff and below-average results. J.D. Martin actually has some potential. Originally drafted in 2001 as a 1st round pick, he’s battled injuries and inconsistency. While he’s not going to be an ace, he’ll keep the ball in the strike zone and elicit some weak swings for his defense to eat up. On a team like the Nats, that’ll do.

Otherwise the Nats are hoping Chien-Ming Wang rebounds from the horrid 2009 he had. It’s anybody’s guess as to how he does. He should be ready around May or June, and if he rebounds, a 1-2-3-4 of Strasburg, Wang, Marquis. Don’t get me wrong—a lot has to go right for that to really work out. It probably won’t. But in the National League, you can certainly get by with that group. In 2011, if Jordan Zimmerman rebounds from TJ surgery, and Wang and Strasburg can perform well, you suddenly have a pretty impressive rotation. Still, the chance of that panning out can’t be great.

All in all, expect the Nats’ rotation to be better than last year’s group. Not that it’s really hard to outperform that group. Seems counter-inuitive to go out and sign a guy like Jason Marquis and have the rest of the spots filled out with Stammens and Mocks.

RP: The bullpen is just straight-up funny. Brian Bruney is their primary set-up man. Yep, that Brian Bruney. To put it in perspective, he couldn’t even crack the Yanks’ bullpen but in Washington he’s the 8th inning guy. The closer is Matt Capps. He has the stuff to succeed as a closer but got lit up by home runs. His velocity was still good, but his changeup was largely ineffective. There’s a good shot Matt Capps is a good rebound candidate in 2010. He won’t be Mariano Rivera, but he shouldn’t be as bad as he was, assuming the spike in HR’s was not the beginning of a trend. The rest of the bullpen again will be filled out with scrubs, retreads and hopefuls. Expect it again to be porous.

Although they’re poised to have big talents like Harper and Strasburg, the Nats have been fairly poor at scouting, development and drafting. They continually re-sign fringe bench players like Adam Kennedy, which means they lose out on possibly adding supplemental picks;  don’t have any impact on the international market,

Signing and re-signing guys like Morgan, Willingham, Dunn, Kennedy and Pudge is the wrong policy. They won’t be able to compete (particularly in that division) with their talent level for a while. The best thing they can do is to stockpile young assets with potential. Morgan’s value has never been higher. Now’s the time. Adam Dunn can still bring back some good prospects, particularly if he’s dealt to an AL team. Willingham doesn’t have the power or defense for a corner outfield spot, but still has value. It’s better to start anew than tread water and pay a high price while losing flexibility.
None of those guys are franchise difference markets. They are EXACTLY the type you trade to become the phoenix. Of course, this is also the same organization that just realized, “Hey, you think we should get a few more scouts? We only have like three of them right now. And they cover high school, college, low minors, high minors and the MLB. They may help us, you know, evaluate talent that we can bring in so we could actually win a few games.” How novel. I think Rizzo will be a net upgrade from the previous FO, but seriously dude, signing guys like Adam Kennedy is the WRONG approach. They take one step forward by upping scouting and development. Then they take a step back by signing crappy veterans. It’s a dance with the bi-polar Nats.

Final Outlook: While they should be improved over 2009, particularly defensively, it’s not much of a difference. This is likely a 75-win team with the only bright spots being Strasburg, Zimmerman, Dunn and a careful watch of Morgan and the upcoming MLB draft.